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A Gerrymandering Arms Race Amps Up the Ad Dollars

In response to President Trump's call for GOP-favoring redistricting ahead of the 2026 midterms, California Governor Gavin Newsom is leading a high-spending Democratic campaign supporting Proposition 50 to override the state's non-partisan redistricting commission, with MediaRadar tracking intense ad battles heavily favoring Democrats and targeting key opposition figures like Trump, marking one of the largest political media ad spends in 2025.

This past June President Trump called on Texas to enact a redistricting plan intended to produce a more GOP-friendly electoral map ahead of the 2026 midterms. This is an unusual step given that this process typically lines up with the decennial census—last taken in 2020. Other red states such as Missouri and Indiana are currently considering similar initiatives.

In response, Governor Gavin Newsom of California placed Proposition 50 on his state’s ballot for this November. This initiative is meant to circumvent the non-partisan California Citizens Redistricting Commission’s maps, last revised in 2010, with a map approved by the state’s Democrat-dominated legislature. If Prop 50 passes, the few remaining Republican Congressional districts in California would be imperiled.

Prepping the ground for a presumed 2028 Presidential run, Gov Newsom has assumed a very public profile as the face of the “Yes” side of this ballot measure—lending his name to the leading ad sponsor. Befitting the deep blue nature of The Golden State and mirroring the patterns MediaRadar has noted in the last 3 election cycles, the Democrat-leaning side of this ad war is outspending their rivals, handily, since the beginning of the year.

This will be the second-highest political media ad spend MediaRadar has tracked in 2025, with only New Jersey’s gubernatorial race doubling its output. We project another $3M inbound between now and November 4th concentrated primarily in local broadcast & local cable but also supplemented by Hispanic broadcast TV, addressable TV, radio, national cable and national broadcast.

Both sides of this ballot initiative are targeting the perceived standard bearers of their opposition. Of the 11 unique creatives appearing on the “Yes” side of Prop 50, MediaRadar has tracked 8,645 airings that attack President Trump. Ads on the “No” side attacking Governor Newsom? Only 1 such creative which has aired 1,120 times.

Given the partisan context in which this ad war is playing out—coupled with the firm hold Democrats have in a deep blue state like California—this 8 to 1 disparity can be expected. But this ballot measure is a proxy contest between the frontrunner for the Democrat party’s presidential contender in 2028 and whomever is the heir to MAGA. A national electorate looks very different from a West Coast one. California’s approach to governance is aspirational to some states and a stark warning to others and we can expect a more balanced advertising landscape in 3 years.

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